Declarative Approaches to Outcome Determination in Judgment Aggregation

Ari Conati, Andreas Niskanen, Matti Järvisalo · JAIR 2024 (d4-journals-jair-2024-0082)

mirror foundnew result: NP-hard → NP-hard — proved & adversarially reviewed →
paperDeclarative Approaches to Outcome Determination in Judgment Aggregation
authorsAri Conati, Andreas Niskanen, Matti Järvisalo
venueJAIR 2024
filed undervoting · weighted-tournaments
judged bygpt-5.6-luna / xhigh (triple__luna__xhigh__c6r1)
judge confidencehigh
authors would recognise ityes

The new result

NP-hard→NP-hard discrete result → its continuous mirror

Answer: \(\Delta_2^{\mathrm P}\)-complete under polynomial-time many-to-one reductions; hence NP-hard. A requested optimal judgment can be returned in \(\mathrm{FP}^{\mathrm{NP}}\). · discrete side: hardness · adjudication: proved

full proof & adversarial review →

The anchor — hardness

Proposition 2.1

PDF text-layer excerpt — equations and symbol order may be approximateOutcome determination is ΘP 2 -complete for the Kemeny, Slater, MaxHamming, Young, Dodgson, and reversal scoring rules, ∆P 2 -complete for the Leximax rule, and ΣP 2 -complete for the Condorcet and ranked agenda rules. 2. Our definition of outcome determination captures the general variant defined by Endriss et al. (2020), where in addition to L ⊆Φ sets L1, . . . , Lu ⊆Φ are given as input, and the task is to decide if there is J ∈R(P) with L ⊆J and Li ̸⊆J for each i = 1, . . . , u. This can be seen from the following construction.

statement extracted from the paper’s text layer

Every anchor argued

The continuous mirror question

Given a finite agenda \(\Phi\), constraints \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{in}}\) and \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\), complete input judgment types \(T\subseteq\mathcal{J}(\Phi,\Gamma_{\mathrm{in}})\), rational masses \(\mu_t\ge 0\) summing to \(1\), and required literals \(L\subseteq\Phi\), decide whether some \(J^\star\in\mathcal{J}(\Phi,\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}})\) minimizing \(D_\mu(J)=\sum_{t\in T}\mu_t H(J,t)\) contains \(L\), and return such a judgment if one exists.

The model it lives in

A society is represented by finitely many complete judgment types \(t\) carrying rational mass \(\mu_t\). The decision variable is a complete \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\)-consistent collective judgment \(J\), and the objective is the population-average Hamming distance \(D_\mu(J)\).

What the mirror covers

The mirror covers Kemeny outcome determination and its hardness, but not the other aggregation rules, solver encodings, implementation engineering, or empirical benchmarks.

Open questions for a prover

The case FOR (proponent)

The strongest case is a high-multiplicity mirror of the paper’s Kemeny outcome-determination problem. I would make this the lead case.

The relevant anchor is Proposition 2.1. It is cited from Endriss et al. (2020), rather than proved in this paper. In full, it states that outcome determination is \(\Theta^P_2\)-complete for Kemeny, Slater, MaxHamming, Young, Dodgson, and reversal scoring; \(\Delta^P_2\)-complete for LexiMax; and \(\Sigma^P_2\)-complete for Condorcet and ranked agenda. I use its Kemeny entry.

The natural regime is a large consultation, electorate, or distributed expert population deciding a fixed finite agenda of logically related propositions. A type is a complete \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{in}}\)-consistent judgment set \(t\): two people have the same type when they submit exactly the same judgments over the agenda. Millions of respondents may be represented by only a few hundred or thousand recurring stakeholder, party, organizational, or policy-position types. The mass \(\mu_t\) is the fraction of the population of type \(t\), not a probability about an individual draw.

This is not outcome-space continuity. Every unit of mass still holds a complete integral judgment set, and the collective judgment remains a complete \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\)-consistent judgment set. Only the population becomes continuous.

I would state the mirror as follows.

Continuous Kemeny Outcome Determination. An instance consists of an agenda \(\Phi\), input and output constraints \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{in}}\) and \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\), a finite support of voter types \(T=\{t_1,\ldots,t_\tau\}\subseteq\mathcal J(\Phi,\Gamma_{\mathrm{in}})\), rational masses \(\mu_i\ge 0\) with \(\sum_i\mu_i=1\), and a set of required literals \(L\subseteq\Phi\).

For every output judgment \(J\in\mathcal J(\Phi,\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}})\), define its population-average Hamming distance by

\[ D_\mu(J)=\sum_{i=1}^{\tau}\mu_i H(J,t_i). \]

The task is to decide whether there exists a Kemeny-optimal output

\[ J^\star\in\operatorname*{arg\,min}_{J\in\mathcal J(\Phi,\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}})}D_\mu(J) \]

such that \(L\subseteq J^\star\), and, if so, return such a \(J^\star\).

Because the judgments are complete, this is equivalently the problem of maximizing

\[ \sum_{\ell\in J}p_\mu(\ell), \qquad p_\mu(\ell)=\sum_{i:\ell\in t_i}\mu_i. \]

That is exactly the paper’s Kemeny objective after replacing the finite support counts \(N(P,\ell)\) by normalized population masses.

The paper’s authors should recognize this as their problem rather than as a weakened surrogate. Definition 2.5 defines Kemeny by minimizing total Hamming distance from the individual judgment sets, while the paper’s MaxSAT and integer-programming formulations use only aggregate support counts. Given a finite profile \(P\) with \(n\) agents, set

\[ \mu_t=\frac{N(P,t)}{n}. \]

Then

\[ D_\mu(J)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{J_i\in P}H(J,J_i), \]

so the set of Kemeny-optimal collective judgments, and hence the outcome-determination answer, is unchanged. This is precisely the high-multiplicity relaxation: the individual list disappears, but its type histogram remains.

I expect this mirror to be Class B: hardness transfers rather than dissolves. The discrete Kemeny problem embeds directly by the normalization above, so the continuous problem is at least \(\Theta^P_2\)-hard under the natural explicit rational encoding. Continuization compresses repeated population types, but it does not remove the combinatorics of selecting a \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\)-consistent collective judgment. In the preference-aggregation special case, that remaining difficulty is the familiar difficulty of selecting an optimal ranking over the alternatives. The population has become continuous; the agenda and collective judgment have not.

That negative computational prediction is still a useful continuous-computational result. It would separate hardness caused by population multiplicity from hardness caused by the agenda or output space. It also leaves meaningful questions: how does complexity depend jointly on the number of types \(\tau\), the number of issues, and the encoding length of \(\mu\)? Which constraint languages \(\Gamma_{\mathrm{out}}\) admit column-generation, approximation, or parameterized algorithms? Can the compressed distribution support fast sensitivity analysis when a small amount of mass moves between types?

The case is narrower than a mirror of the whole paper. It covers the underlying Kemeny outcome-determination problem, not the SAT encoding, solver engineering, or benchmark methodology. Proposition 4.2 supports the reading: the paper proves that its Kemeny and Slater MaxSAT optima correspond exactly to the intended collective judgments, but the continuous question should concern the underlying weighted Kemeny problem, not “continuous MaxSAT.”

My weakest point is that this mirror may provide compression without tractability. In fact, the expected outcome is that Kemeny’s hardness survives. An opposing analyst can therefore say that the proposal merely rewrites a finite weighted profile as a distribution. My answer is that this is exactly the programme’s high-multiplicity notion of continuization, and Class B is an intended outcome: a continuous population can be a legitimate mirror even when the mirror proves that continuity does not help.

The case AGAINST (opponent, writing after the proponent)

The negative case is weak here, because the proponent’s Kemeny anchor survives the usual objections.

Proposition 2.1 is a genuine computational result, even though it is cited rather than proved: Kemeny outcome determination is \(\Theta^P_2\)-complete. The paper also gives a concrete algorithmic treatment through Proposition 4.2 and Algorithm 1, so there is no absence of a computational object to mirror.

Nor does Kemeny require individual identity. Its objective depends on the profile only through literal supports. For a type distribution \(\mu\),

\[ D_\mu(J)=\sum_t \mu_t H(J,t) \]

is exactly the normalized finite-profile objective:

\[ D_\mu(J)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}H(J,J_i). \]

A large consultation, party-position survey, or organizational decision process with recurring complete judgment patterns is a plausible high-multiplicity regime. The population mass is meaningful, and no information relevant to Kemeny is lost by grouping identical judgment sets.

The strongest objection is that this looks like a change of encoding rather than a new model. With rational masses, multiplying by a common denominator reconstructs a finite profile, so the continuous problem is a weighted, compressed representation of the discrete one. But that is precisely the programme’s high-multiplicity bridge; the compression can be exponentially valuable when multiplicities are binary-encoded. It is not a valid collision objection, since the paper still formulates the input as a finite individual profile rather than as a population distribution.

The continuum also does not degenerate: changing a positive fraction of a type changes literal supports, can create or remove ties, and can change the set of Kemeny-optimal collective judgments. Existing high-multiplicity work would support, rather than undermine, this modelling choice.

Even a stronger version—mass-valued profile modification or Kemeny control—would remain a legitimate continuous-population question. It could ask for the least mass transfer between judgment types needed to make a prescribed collective judgment Kemeny-optimal. That is not answered by the paper’s finite-profile solver engineering.

Thus the only credible negative claim is that the basic mirror may be mathematically close to a normalized weighted Kemeny instance and may yield a Class B result rather than a tractability gain. Under the programme’s rules, neither point defeats it. I cannot honestly establish the requested universal negative case: this anchor provides a worthwhile continuous mirror.

The adversarial triple: the proponent anchors on up to three named results; the opponent sees that case and must defeat every anchor; the judge decides which case convinced it. These are the pipeline’s own outputs, generated by tools/triple_run.py — no human edited them. The paper’s own text is not reproduced here beyond the quoted statement above.